The Adaptation Gap Report 2024, titled “Come Hell and High Water,” emphasizes the growing urgency of addressing climate adaptation as the world faces escalating climate risks. Released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on November 7, 2024, just days before the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the report provides a comprehensive evaluation of global progress in climate adaptation planning, financing, and implementation. It highlights the stark gap between existing efforts and the critical needs for addressing the impacts of climate change.
Alarming Global Climate Impacts and the Need for Action
The report arrives in a year marked by devastating climate-related disasters. Catastrophic floods in Nepal, Sudan, Nigeria, and neighboring countries during 2024 claimed hundreds of lives and displaced millions. These extreme events have been linked to global warming by the World Weather Attribution collaboration, underlining the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable, low-emitting developing nations. These disasters further exacerbate debt burdens and underscore the urgency for adaptation finance to address growing needs effectively.
The Adaptation Finance Gap
- The report reveals a significant increase in international public adaptation finance flows to developing countries, from $22 billion in 2021 to $28 billion in 2022. This is the largest year-on-year increase since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015.
- Despite progress, the current flow is far from adequate. The adaptation finance gap is estimated between $187 billion and $359 billion annually, compared to the actual financing needs of $387 billion per year for developing countries by 2030.
- While the Glasgow Climate Pact aims to double adaptation finance from 2019 levels of $19 billion to $38 billion by 2025, achieving this goal would address only 5% of the existing gap.
Insufficient Progress in Adaptation Planning and Implementation
The report highlights that 171 countries have at least one national adaptation planning instrument, such as a policy or strategy. However:
- 26 countries still lack such frameworks, with 10 showing no inclination to develop one. Among them, 7 are conflict-affected or fragile states, requiring tailored support to meet the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience (UAE-FGCR) targets established at COP28.
- Progress on implementation remains slow, with evaluations indicating that nearly half of adaptation projects supported by UNFCCC financing entities are either unsatisfactory or unsustainable without continued funding.
Key Findings on Global Temperature and Climate Goals
The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2024 warns that the global average temperature rise is nearing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the ambitious limit set by the Paris Agreement. Current trajectories, as outlined in the Emissions Gap Report 2024, project a temperature rise of 2.6°C to 3.1°C by 2100 without immediate and substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions. This necessitates a transformational shift in climate adaptation strategies.
Recommendations for Bridging the Adaptation Gap
To effectively address the adaptation gap, the report advocates:
- Adopting a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance at COP29, with a focus on stronger adaptation components in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due in 2025.
- Shifting from reactive, incremental, and project-based financing to anticipatory, strategic, and transformational adaptation approaches.
- Utilizing innovative financing instruments such as resilience credits, debt-for-adaptation swaps, insurance-linked instruments, and payments for ecosystem services.
- Emphasizing non-debt-increasing financial mechanisms, such as grants and concessional loans, to avoid worsening the financial burdens of developing countries.
- Strengthening capacity-building efforts and ensuring the transfer of technologies to support adaptation across sectors, scales, and development priorities.
Transformational Adaptation: A Critical Imperative
The report stresses the need for transformational adaptation, which requires significant shifts in sectors that are harder to finance. Unlike mitigation efforts that focus on technical solutions, adaptation must address complex challenges through strategic investments and long-term solutions. The lack of clarity around the concept of transformational adaptation has been a point of contention for developing nations, highlighting the need for a clear definition and consensus on its implementation.
Challenges in Monitoring and Evaluation
Achieving meaningful progress in adaptation planning and implementation is hindered by the absence of standardized metrics and indicators to measure outcomes. The UAE-FGCR targets, which include thematic and dimensional goals across agriculture, biodiversity, water, infrastructure, and livelihoods, require robust evaluation frameworks to track progress effectively.
Global and National Initiatives for Climate Adaptation
Global Efforts
- The Paris Agreement established a Global Goal on Adaptation to enhance adaptive capacity, resilience, and reduce vulnerabilities.
- The Adaptation Fund finances projects in developing countries, aiming to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
- The UAE-FGCR framework sets 11 global adaptation targets, focusing on planning, implementation, and monitoring across critical sectors.
India’s Adaptation Measures
- The National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) includes eight national missions addressing climate adaptation.
- The National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC) provides financial support to vulnerable states for adaptation actions.
- Sectoral initiatives like MISHTI and Amrit Dharohar promote ecosystem-based approaches to enhance resilience.
The Road Ahead: Addressing Systemic Challenges
The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2024 highlights the pressing need to reform international financial institutions and multilateral development banks to unlock greater adaptation finance. Additionally, capacity-building efforts must prioritize gender equality, social inclusion, and the mobilization of local resources.
The report underscores the critical importance of moving beyond short-term, reactive measures and adopting a more holistic and forward-looking approach. This includes building evidence-based strategies to enhance resilience in vulnerable communities and ensure sustainable development in the face of a warming world.