The Emissions Gap Report 2024, released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), provides an urgent analysis of global emissions trends and the steps needed to meet climate targets. Ahead of COP 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, this report highlights the widening gap between current policies and the levels necessary to align with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C—ideally to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The findings emphasize the urgency of accelerating action, particularly by high-emitting nations, to bridge this gap and avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
Global Emissions and the Need for Urgent Reductions
The report warns that maintaining current policies without significant enhancement will likely result in a 3.1°C increase in global temperatures, far exceeding safe limits. Even with full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the world would still be on track for a 2.6°C rise. Achieving the 1.5°C goal requires greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to peak by 2025 and fall by 43% by 2030. The report notes that global emissions reached 57.1 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) in 2023, marking a 1.3% increase from the previous year, largely driven by growth in key sectors.
- India’s emissions increased by 6.1%, the largest global rise, with China following at 5.2%. Despite reductions of 7.5% in the EU and 1.4% in the US, the global upward trend continues, fueled by increased emissions in power, transport, agriculture, and industry.
- Per capita emissions reveal significant disparities: India’s remain low at 2.9 tCO₂e compared to 11 tCO₂e in China and 18 tCO₂e in the US, highlighting the unequal distribution of emission contributions.
- Developed nations, with per capita emissions three times the global average (6.6 tCO₂e), bear a larger responsibility for emissions reduction. By contrast, least developed countries contribute only 3% of global emissions, underscoring the need for a differentiated approach.
The G20 countries, excluding the African Union, accounted for 77% of global emissions in 2023, with six of the largest emitters—China, the US, India, Russia, the EU, and Brazil—producing 63% of global GHGs. This concentration of emissions among industrialized nations emphasizes the critical role of high-income countries in spearheading emissions cuts, as well as the importance of a fair approach to climate finance for supporting lower-income nations in their transition to clean energy.
Financial Commitments and Investments Required to Bridge the Gap
UNEP highlights the massive investments needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, estimating annual costs of USD 900 billion to USD 2.1 trillion, equivalent to about 1% of global GDP. This financing is essential for scaling clean energy technologies and accelerating transition efforts.
- To meet reduction goals, UNEP advocates a six-fold increase in climate mitigation investments to stay on track for 1.5°C.
- Financial restructuring is essential to attract private capital and lower the cost of clean energy initiatives, with blended finance mechanisms needed to mobilize funds at a substantial scale.
- Scaling up solar and wind energy alone could account for 27% of required emissions reductions by 2030, while forest conservation and restoration could add another 20%.
UNEP, and its Role in Climate Fight
Founded in 1972, UNEP has been at the forefront of environmental issues globally, advocating for sustainable policies and practices. Operating under the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) in Nairobi, Kenya, UNEP’s initiatives include Climate Action, Ecosystem Restoration, Clean Seas, and contributions to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through the Emissions Gap Report and other influential reports, UNEP provides scientific analysis and policy recommendations that guide global climate strategies.
Emissions Gap Report 2024
The Emissions Gap Report series, published since 2010, aims to track and address the discrepancy between expected GHG emissions based on current policies and the levels needed to avoid severe climate impacts. The 2024 report, titled “No More Hot Air… Please!”, underlines the consequences of inaction and the importance of swift reductions:
- GHG reductions of 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 are essential for keeping the 1.5°C goal alive. To maintain the 2°C target, cuts of 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035 are required.
- If countries fail to enhance their NDCs, temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.1°C, resulting in catastrophic impacts on global ecosystems, economies, and communities.
The 2024 report is particularly notable for urging immediate action and emphasizing the need for substantial, sustained financial and policy commitments, particularly from high-emission G20 members.
The report underscores the wide variation in emission reduction progress between high-income and low- or middle-income nations. Wealthier countries have generally failed to reduce emissions at the necessary rate, while emerging economies continue to experience emissions growth due to their developmental needs. Bridging these disparities requires tailored solutions that consider each country’s economic context and capacity for decarbonization.
In addition, recent global events like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have impacted emissions trends. These disruptions have reversed temporary emission reductions, underscoring the need for resilient policies that can adapt to economic fluctuations.
The path forward
The report emphasizes the need for unprecedented global cooperation and highlights the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Effective climate policies require all nations to commit to action while acknowledging each country’s unique context. To meet long-term climate goals, UNEP suggests focusing on areas with substantial potential for emissions reduction, including:
- Scaling solar and wind energy for 27% of target reductions by 2030.
- Expanding forest conservation and restoration efforts to deliver another 20% of reductions.
- Strengthening NDCs through a whole-of-government approach, coupled with international cooperation on financial reforms and private sector engagement.
By acting collectively, nations can overcome the emissions gap, safeguard natural ecosystems, and create a sustainable future for all.